For those who’re making Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings DFS picks for Sunday in Week 10, you then’ve come to the best place. We’ve analyzed every crew’s highest-probability recreation scripts to evaluate the most probably outcomes, together with which gamers are in line to thrive greater than anticipated or fall in need of expectations.
The next really useful fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) goals to lock in a comparatively excessive ground whereas maximizing upside.
Josh Allen’s well being. That’s the burning mild our DFS photo voltaic system surrounds. Allen’s well being impacts the values of not simply his Payments teammates, but in addition the relative values of his Vikings opponents.
As a result of Allen at full power at $11,800 might be a greater worth than Dalvin Cook dinner at $9,400. We may even make a robust case for Stefon Diggs ($10,600) being a most well-liked play over Cook dinner, who may fade a bit within the fourth quarter if the Vikings are down by double digits . . . partially, due to Allen.
Choose any participant on this DFS slate — from operating backs to kickers and even D/STs — and we’ll discover distinct worth shifts for almost all of them based mostly on Allen’s well being.
I’m scripting this on Friday afternoon, when he’s firmly questionable. If Allen in some way is a full go by Sunday, I’ll replace. However proper now, this lineup must issue within the robust chance that Case Keenum will begin, or else a less-than-100% Allen will “give it a go.”
The purpose unfold for this contest favored Buffalo by 7.5 factors on Monday. It’s presently at solely 3.5. Is sensible. This could possibly be a fairly shut recreation, and because of this, we should always contemplate the Payments’ DFS choices that replicate a barely extra RB-heavy recreation script and barely much less scoring, whereas nonetheless capitalizing on Minnesota’s subpar go protection.
Through the years, I’ve typically written that Minnesota’s had one of many league’s most top-heavy offenses. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook dinner, Justin Jefferson (and Diggs earlier than him), and Adam Thielen usually comprised a four-player corps that we may kind of financial institution on every week.
Except for occasional significant contributions from No. 3 or No. 4 receivers (like Okay.J. Osborn and Irv Smith Jr.), this group provided predictability, which in flip made our jobs simpler when crafting DFS lineups.
Is that this one other Jefferson day, or ought to Cook dinner be the MVP? Fairly clear-cut.
However Minnesota’s acquisition for T.J. Hockenson has unsteadied this long-time method. Hockenson brings a playmaking capability the Vikings haven’t loved within the final twenty years or extra. They’ve had one top-six fantasy TE throughout these previous 20 years: 2016’s Kyle Rudolph, who completed simply behind Travis Kelce of their battle for the No. 1 spot.
That turned out to be Kelce’s first season at No. 1.
Nevertheless, some context is required. Rudolph was fifteenth in the complete NFL in targets that yr. He averaged 10.1 yards per reception, which was close to the underside among the many high 30 fantasy TEs. Comparatively, Hockenson is averaging 11.0 for his profession, together with a sterling 13.3 this season.
The Vikings wanted one other impression participant earlier than the commerce deadline to enhance their Tremendous Bowl odds. They discovered him. Because of this, the once-predictable four-man offensive corps has grown to 5. And the percentages of selecting the correct gamers every week have decreased.
High DFS Picks for Payments vs. Vikings
At present, we’re taking part in DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which incorporates one participant who earns 1.5 instances his scoring output, plus 5 Flex gamers.
The next NFL betting suggestions are based mostly on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from many years of NFL historic information. Utilizing this information, I’ve constructed dozens of fashions exhibiting actionable chances of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Stefon Diggs, Payments ($15,900 Captain Price)
Diggs is dealing with his former crew in an announcement recreation. The Vikings are surrendering the sixth-most receiving yards. Gabe Davis hasn’t turn into a constant possibility (but). If Buffalo wins this recreation, Diggs doubtless can be an enormous cause why.
Flex: RB Dalvin Cook dinner, Vikings ($9,400)
Assuming Buffalo’s not working at full power, the Vikings ought to preserve this one shut. Benefit: Cook dinner. There are few extra full RBs within the league.
Flex: TE T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($7,000)
See above. Minnesota traded for Hockenson as a result of they wanted higher playmaking from their lead tight finish. Barring one thing unexpected, he’ll stay a key goal for Kirk Cousins.
Flex: WR Adam Thielen, Vikings ($6,600)
We may spend much more for Jefferson, however for what?
I do know what you’re pondering. “He can get us 25 factors.”
Positive, and he’s extra prone to rating lower than 18. To remain throughout the wage cap and maximize worth elsewhere, I really like Thielen’s scoring potential as probably the most formidable red-zone threats of the previous 5 years.
Flex: RB Devin Singletary, Payments ($6,200)
Love his dump-off potential, in addition to his sustained management function on this backfield. Whereas Devin Singletary usually isn’t a glamorous DFS decide, his fairly constant double-digit-touch quantity will turn out to be useful. I’m anticipating the crew to lean on him a bit of greater than normal close to the objective line.
Flex: TE Dawson Knox, Payments ($4,800)
We’ve $4,900 left. Assuming the Payments function a bit of extra conservatively than normal on offense, Dawson Knox ought to inherit an additional goal or two. And regardless of his two TDs, he’s really one of many higher TE landing choices within the league.