Tuesday, February 7, 2023

How low can the Bitcoin price go?

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Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a 12 months in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time highs in November 2021.

BTC value efficiency has given traders as much as 77% losses, however how a lot decrease can BTC/USD actually go?

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Bitcoin merchants and analysts have lengthy agreed that 2022 is the 12 months of the biggest cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.

After coming off all-time highs to start out the 12 months at round $46,000, BTC/USD has supplied little aid and has since returned to ranges not seen since November 2020, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

That has positioned the pair in historic bear market backside territory — having misplaced a most of round 77% since the latest peak, Bitcoin might have little room left to fall.

This time, nevertheless, could also be totally different. Cointelegraph takes a take a look at what among the hottest crypto market commentators suppose relating to the place Bitcoin will backside.

CryptoBullet: “Comfy shopping for” round $16,000

One well-known social media persona is sticking by a principle from earlier in 2022 — and it’s all about one specific on-chain metric.

For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) nonetheless presents a key perception into macro BTC value bottoms.

CVDD primarily counts how a lot “hodled” days a coin has accrued when it strikes to a brand new pockets. It’s expressed as a ratio to the general age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics useful resource Woobull explains is a “calibration issue.”

Trying again in time, CVDD has acted as a major line within the sand, and if this time isn’t any totally different, BTC/USD might already be giving consumers the absolute best revenue alternative.

Based on Woobull, CVDD at present lies at round $15,900.

“I really feel snug shopping for Bitcoin right here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter followers on Nov. 26.

“Can it go decrease? After all it may. If one other crypto firm goes bankrupt or one thing like that $BTC will fall under CVDD, however not by a lot. The majority of the downtrend is over.”

Bitcoin Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) annotated chart. Supply: CryptoBullet/ Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case situation”

An previous hand within the crypto market is continually reevaluating simply how dangerous the bears could chunk this time round.

Filbfilb, co-founder of buying and selling suite Decentrader, not too long ago told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD might see $10,000 across the new 12 months if macro situations worsen.

That was earlier than the FTX debacle, nevertheless, and the ensuing gasoline added to the bear market hearth has precipitated him to rethink.

In a livestream along with fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.

These fluctuate, nevertheless — a big “ladder” of bids lies slightly below spot value and focuses on $12,000-$14,000. On the similar time, final assist might come as little as $6,000.

Filbfilb moreover famous {that a} black swan occasion corresponding to additional crypto bankruptcies might set off a spike by means of the higher assist discipline, opening up the potential for $10,000 or decrease subsequent.

A visit to the $6,000 zone, nevertheless, is “unlikely” underneath present circumstances, he suggested.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap knowledge. Supply: TradingView

Many eyes on the $14,000 prize

Filbfilb’s higher band of bid assist on trade order books is a well-liked goal for an growing variety of commentators.

Associated: Will Bitcoin hit $110K in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now

As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a major spot on the radar, and entries round there are already being deliberate.

That space would additionally convey BTC/USD losses versus all-time highs in step with these of earlier bear markets.

BTC/USD drawdown vs. all-time highs chart. Supply: Glassnode

Not solely that, however $13,900 types a major assist line on weekly timeframes, dealer and analyst Rekt Capital notes, one which has remained untested because the second half of 2020.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don’t essentially mirror or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.